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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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