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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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