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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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