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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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