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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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