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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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