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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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