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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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