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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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