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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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