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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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