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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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