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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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