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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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