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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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