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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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