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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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