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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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