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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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