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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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