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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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