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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
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INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
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Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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