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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
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Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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