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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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