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Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
 India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise in electricity demand and an increase in short-term prices.
According to a post published on Ind-Ra's website, the stable-to-negative outlook continues to reflect Ind-Ra’s expectation of a continued low plant load factor of 60.0%-62.0% of coal-based thermal power plants over the rest of FY19, because of large capacity additions in the past five years and domestic coal availability challenges. Ind-Ra expects India’s dependence on thermal power generation to remain high in the absence of any substantial improvement in power generation from other sources.
The agency has maintained a Stable Outlook on most of its rated power sector entities for the rest of FY19, as the agency expects the entities to continue to manage fuel and counterparty risks on account of a favourable tariff mechanism, a comfortable liquidity position and support from central and state governments.
Ind-Ra expects the dependence on coal-based power generation to continue despite a likely increase in capacity addition in the renewable segment, as capacity addition is low on an equivalent thermal basis owing to the low plant load factor in the renewable segment.
Given Ind-Ra’s expectation of healthy power demand growth in the rest of FY19 and thermal power capacity contributing to the required growth, coal availability becomes a key determinant for required power demand growth. Considering the historical growth rate of domestic non-coking coal production and offtake, Ind-Ra estimates imported coal requirement to increase to 62.0 million tonnes in FY19 from 56.0 million tonnes in FY18 to meet incremental power generation. Hence, there could be higher imported coal usage in FY19 than that in FY16-FY18, when imported coal usage declined. According to Ind-Ra, in a scenario of lower-than-required growth in domestic coal output, short-term power prices would remain firm and are likely to be determined by the marginal cost of energy production undertaken using imported coal.
Ind-Ra estimates project internal rate of returns to decline to a single-digit level in view of the recent aggressive bidding for wind power projects. Ind-Ra believes a high un-hedged forex exposure from the depreciating Indian rupee further lowers projects’ internal rate of returns. Moreover, access to the banking system may tighten, in case bidding continues to remain aggressive.
Solicitation Disclosures
Ratings are not a recommendation or suggestion, directly or indirectly, to you or any other person, to buy, sell, make or hold any investment, loan or security or to undertake any investment strategy with respect to any investment, loan or security or any issuer. Please also refer Ind-Ra’s Disclaimer
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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