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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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