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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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