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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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