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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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