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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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