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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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