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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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