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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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