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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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Showing 1776 to 1780 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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