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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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