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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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