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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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