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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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