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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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