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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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