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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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