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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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