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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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