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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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