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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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