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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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