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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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