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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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