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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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