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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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