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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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