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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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