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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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