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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 June 17
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION FELL BY 6.2%, THE LARGEST ANNUAL DECLINE ON RECORD - BP
COALspot.com: The 2017 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, shows global energy markets continuing to undergo long-term changes as ...
Wednesday, 14 June 17
HANDYSIZES AND PANAMAXES ENJOY THE TIGHTEST SUPPLY - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The dry and the tanker shipping segments have dissimilar exposure to supply-driven opportunity (or risk). While the vintage (i.e., over 15 years ol ...
Tuesday, 13 June 17
THE TANKER FREIGHT MARKET IS STILL UNDER PRESSURE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
News of U.S. inventory decline has hit the market by surprise with prices of the commodity showing some quick revival as OPEC continues to push wit ...
Monday, 12 June 17
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX TOOK A POSITIVE STEP
COALspot.com: The Freight market incline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ...
Friday, 09 June 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
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Showing 2026 to 2030 news of total 6871 |
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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